☢️ WW3 Probability Index
Multiple active wars. 90 seconds to midnight. Current baseline.
Baseline 19.5% · decays 0.15/min toward it · cap 95%
Theater Heat
- Eastern FrontCOLD0% share · hn 0Russia–Ukraine, NATO–Russia friction
- Middle EastCOLD0% share · hn 0Israel–Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen / Red Sea
- Indo-PacificCOLD0% share · hn 0China–Taiwan, South China Sea
- Korean PeninsulaCOLD0% share · hn 0North Korea
- Global / CyberCOLD0% share · hn 0Cyber without geography, unattributed
Heat: each event adds severity × type weight to its theater; heat decays 4 % per hour (half-life ≈ 17 h). Share = theater heat / total heat. hn = heat / 25 × 100; hn ≥ 70 is CRITICAL.
Tier ladder
- 0–5%PEACETIMENo active major conflicts between nuclear powers
- 5–12%LOW RISKRegional proxy conflicts only. Nuclear powers not directly involved
- 12–22%ELEVATEDMultiple active wars. 90 seconds to midnight. Current baseline.
- 22–35%HIGH RISKNuclear-armed states in direct confrontation. Doctrines updated.
- 35–50%SEVEREDirect military exchanges between nuclear powers. Red lines crossed.
- 50–70%CRITICALNuclear weapons deployed to forward positions. Launch drills active.
- 70–90%IMMINENTNuclear first-strike considered. DEFCON 1. Evacuations ordered.
- 90–100%EXTINCTIONStrategic nuclear exchange initiated. Civilization collapse.
How This Is Calculated
Baseline: 19.5% — Based on Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight (closest ever). Multiple active wars between nuclear-aligned states. Updated nuclear doctrines.
Live adjustments: Each real military event adjusts the index based on: event severity (1-10), event type (nuclear events weighted 2.8x, military 1x, cyber 0.8x), and which countries are involved (USA-Russia direct = 2.5x multiplier, Israel-Iran = 1.8x).
De-escalation: Index slowly decays toward baseline (19.5%) when no new escalation events occur, simulating diplomatic cooling periods. It never drops below baseline while active wars continue.
Diminishing returns: The higher the index, the harder each event pushes it further — reflecting that each additional escalation step requires exponentially more provocation.
Shared world: computed on the server from a public, append-only event log. Every visitor sees the same number.
Active Risk Factors
- Russia-Ukraine War35%
Full-scale conventional war between nuclear power and NATO-backed state. 1000+ days active. Russia updated nuclear doctrine Nov 2024. Oreshnik hypersonic IRBM deployed.
- Israel-Iran Direct Exchanges28%
Two direct missile exchanges in 2024 (Apr & Oct). Iran pursuing nuclear weapons capability. Could draw in USA and trigger regional nuclear war.
- China-Taiwan Flashpoint22%
PLA encirclement drills (Joint Sword 2024A & B). 370+ warship fleet. USA committed to Taiwan defense. Nuclear powers on collision course.
- North Korea Arsenal12%
50+ warheads. ICBM capability proven. 12K troops fighting in Russia. Unpredictable regime with nothing to lose.
- Nuclear Doctrine Escalation40%
Russia: 'Any attack backed by nuclear state = nuclear response.' Multiple nations lowering thresholds for nuclear use.
- Doomsday Clock Position22%
90 seconds to midnight — closest in history. Set Jan 2024. Reflects judgment of nuclear scientists worldwide.
Global Nuclear Arsenal — 12,100+ warheads
- 🇷🇺 Russia6,255Active
- 🇺🇸 USA5,550Active
- 🇨🇳 China500+Growing fast
- 🇫🇷 France290Submarine
- 🇮🇱 Israel90*Undeclared
- 🇰🇵 N.Korea50+Expanding
- 🇮🇷 Iran0†Threshold
*estimated †threshold state • Source: FAS/SIPRI 2024
Escalation Multipliers
- 🇺🇸 ↔ 🇷🇺2.5×Direct superpower confrontation
- 🇺🇸 ↔ 🇨🇳2.2×Pacific nuclear flashpoint
- 🇮🇱 ↔ 🇮🇷1.8×Could draw in USA/Russia
- 🇷🇺 ↔ 🇫🇷1.6×NATO Article 5 trigger
- 🇺🇸 ↔ 🇮🇷1.4×Gulf escalation
- 🇰🇵 ↔ 🇺🇸1.5×Nuclear wildcard
- 🇨🇳 ↔ 🇰🇵0.8×Aligned neighbours
- 🇷🇺 ↔ 🇺🇦1.2×Active full-scale war
- any other pair1.0×baseline
Power Ranking
- 1🇺🇸 Rick C-137 🔰545
- 2🇨🇳 Unity 🔰479
- 3🇮🇱 Krombopulos Michael 🔰442
- 4🇫🇷 Birdperson 🔰416
- 5🇷🇺 Evil Morty 🔰403
- 6🇺🇦 Mr. Meeseeks 🔰317
- 7🇮🇷 Evil Rick 🔰292
- 8🇰🇵 Scary Terry 🔰140
8 nations · stats move with every real event